US Wall Street extended losses Wednesday and Asian stocks dropped on Thursday morning as a hawkish tone from central banks resonated across markets. Asian markets were trading lower in the morning session.
Daily Commodity Outlook by Angel One – Crude, Gold, and Base Metals
Prathamesh Mallya, AVP- research, non-agri commodities, and currencies, Angel One Ltd:
Gold: We expect gold to trade lower towards 49970 levels, a break of which could prompt the price to move lower to 49550 levels.
Crude Oil: The unexpected increase in crude oil inventories, along with a strong dollar, would limit crude price advances.
Base Metal: We expect copper to trade lower towards 641 levels, a break of which could prompt the price to move lower to 631 levels.
India central bank may slow rate hike pace on growth concerns -Deutsche Bank
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may ease its pace of rate hikes from this month and shift to similar moves after softer-than-expected growth in April-June, Deutsche Bank said.
Asia’s third-largest economy grew 13.5% in the April-to-June quarter, which was lower than RBI’s projection of 16.2% and 15.2% forecast by economists in a Reuters poll.
“Given that April-June’s GDP growth has disappointed significantly compared to RBI’s forecast, we will not be surprised, if RBI decides to slow down its pace of rate hikes to 25 bps clips from September onwards,” Kaushik Das, chief economist at Deutsche Bank said.
Das added that the central bank may consider 35 bps rate hike, should the U.S. Federal Reserve deliver a 75 bps rate hike on Sep. 21. (Reuters)
Cryptocurrency prices today: Bitcoin hovers around $20k, ether, dogecoin fall while Polygon gains
Cryptocurrency prices today plunged with Bitcoin hovering around $20,000 once again, as hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve about inflation and the economic slowdown continue to weigh on riskier assets. The world’s largest and most popular cryptocurrency was trading about a per cent lower at $20,073. The global crypto market cap today was back above the $1 trillion mark, even as it was down over 2% in the last 24 hours at $1.02 trillion, as per CoinGecko. (Full Report)
IMF provisionally agrees on $2.9 billion loan for Sri Lanka
Crisis-hit Sri Lanka has reached a preliminary agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a loan of about $2.9 billion, the international lender said in a statement on Thursday.
“The objectives of Sri Lanka’s new Fund-supported programme are to restore macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability,” the statement said, outlining the 48-month long arrangement under the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility.
The agreement is subject to approval by IMF management and its executive board and is contingent on Sri Lankan authorities following through with previously agreed measures.
The IMF also requires receiving financing assurances from Sri Lanka’s official creditors, besides ensuring efforts are made to reach a collaborative agreement with private creditors. (Reuters)
India is new major player in Russian oil market once dominated by China
India has pushed into a corner of the Russian oil market once dominated by China, taking a record number of shipments of a Far Eastern grade as the fallout from Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine reshapes trade flows.
Six vessels hauling Russian crude known as ESPO were headed to refiners in the South Asian nation in August, according to traders and shipbrokers. That’s the highest number of cargoes purchased by India since the stream was introduced, and accounts almost one-fifth of available monthly shipments.
“ESPO crude is now becoming a steady flow for India, a country that wasn’t a big fan of the variety for years,” said Emma Li, analyst at Vortexa Ltd. “The voyage to India will take longer, but the shipments might continue as long as the price stays attractive and there aren’t real sanctions blocking the trade.” (Bloomberg)
Bajaj Finserv continues to shine; adds 3% in today’s session
PFC shares trade ex-dividend today, stock falls
Shares of Power Finance Corporation (PFC) dipped more than a per cent to ₹118.9 apiece on the BSE in Thursday’s early deals as the stock started trading ex-dividend, ahead of the record date for its interim dividend for the FY2022-23.
More views on Nifty: Traders’ sentiment changed 360 degrees in merely 24 hours
Sameet Chavan, chief analyst-technical and derivatives, Angel One Ltd: It seems that the traders’ sentiment has changed 360 degrees in merely 24 hours. On Monday, markets opened with a massive downside gap and on Tuesday after a positive start, the giant leap was visible on the screen itself. Honestly speaking, we did not expect the rebound to go beyond 17550 – 17600. In fact, the velocity at which the broader market took off is certainly a pleasant development for our markets. Now, since we have already surpassed last week’s high, a follow-up in the coming session would send Nifty towards 17850 and then towards the key psychological level of 18000. On the flip side, 17600 – 17500 are to be seen as immediate support. If there is no aberration on the global front, any small decline in the coming session should ideally be bought into. Let’s see how things pan out globally and hope the market keeps shining as we have kicked off the festive season now.
Most of the heavyweight constituents participated on Tuesday; where banking space had the lion’s share in this mesmerizing rally. In addition, the NIFTY MIDCAP 50 index too made a strong comeback, which is a reflection of overall improved market breadth.
Axis Securities Limited Bank Nifty weekly option report: Bank Nifty has seen increase in Open Interest of 11.09% with increase in price of 1.55% indicating Long Build up.
Nifty has seen increase in Open Interest of 9.42% with an increase in price of 1.36% indicating Long Build Up.
BANK NIFTY Strategy : – CALL Spread
View: Moderately BULLISH.
Rationale:- Traders could initiate this spread strategy to make modest returns with limited risk and reward. The spread suggested consists of buying one lot of 39,700 strike CALL option and simultaneously selling one lot of 40,200 strike CALL Option.
Rupee falls 14 paise to 79.66 against US dollar in early trade
The rupee depreciated by 14 paise to 79.66 against the US dollar in opening trade on Thursday, tracking the strength of the American currency overseas.
At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 79.55 against the greenback, then fell further to 79.66, registering a decline of 14 paise over its last close.
On Tuesday, the rupee had finished at a nearly two-week high of 79.52. The domestic forex market was closed on Wednesday on account of Ganesh Chaturthi. (PTI)
India’s SpiceJet falls nearly 15% on bigger quarterly loss
Shares of India’s SpiceJet Ltd fell as much as 14.7% on Thursday, after the low-cost carrier posted a bigger loss due to high fuel costs and unfavourable foreign currency rates, and said its chief financial officer had resigned.
SpiceJet posted a net loss of 7.84 billion rupees ($98.50 million) for the quarter ended June 30, compared with a loss of 7.31 billion rupees a year earlier.
Recently, the cash-strapped airline has struggled to make timely payments to vendors and lessors, prompting some to deregister planes.
Goldman cuts India’s growth forecast; Morgan Stanley sees downside risks
Goldman Sachs has revised lower its growth projections for India after the April-June quarterly gross domestic product readings missed market estimates.
The lower-than-expected growth during April-June created downside risk of 40 basis points to current fiscal year growth estimates, Morgan Stanley said in a note.
India’s real GDP growth increased 13.5% year-on-year in the reported quarter, below the 15.2% forecast by economists polled by Reuters.
“The reading was materially below our expectations,” said Santanu Sengupta, India economist at Goldman Sachs. Sequentially, GDP growth momentum declined to -3.3% quarter-on-quarter after expanding 0.5% in the Jan-March period, Sengupta pointed out. (Reuters)
Gold prices today fall to near lowest in 2 months, silver down at multi-year low
Gold and silver prices remained weak today in Indian market amid weak global trend. On MCX, the yellow metal fell 0.4% to near two-month low of ₹50,200 per 10 gram while silver tumbled to multi-year low of ₹52,395 per kg. In global markets, gold fell to six-week low amid a firm US dollar. The yellow metal was down 0.3% to $1,706.31 an ounce as the dollar index rose 0.29% to 108.983. The US bond yields also rose on expectations of the US Federal Reserve continuing with its aggressive policy stance. (Full Report)
Analysts recommendations on Nifty: ‘Avoid trading aggressively amid global nervousness’
Tirthankar Das, technical & derivative analyst, retail, Ashika Stock Broking Ltd: On the technical front, Nifty formed a strong bullish candle on the daily time frame and crossed above all crucial short term and long-term averages indicating of a bullish overtone which is likely to prompt another round of rally in the near term. On the oscillator front too, the 14-period RSI has gained a bullish momentum sustaining above the trend deciding level of 60. Though one need to avoid trading aggressively amid global nervousness. Considering the present situation, a bare minimum correction of 38.6% of the entire rally from 15,183 to 17,992 comes around 16900 followed by 50% correction at 16600. On the upside present setup indicates that Nifty can move towards 17,992 followed by 18,114 in the coming days with immediate support stands at 17,350 and Index need to sustain above the said level with some authority for the bulls to strengthen their stance.
Pranit Arora, co-founder & CEO of Univest: India’s GDP growth of 13.5% is the fastest in last 4 quarters however, it still misses RBI projected GDP growth of ~16%.
We can expect a gap down opening in the markets today owing to international market sentiments however, looking at the technical chart patterns where Nifty is trading above its 20day EMA of 17580 and FIIs bullish position in Nifty, we maintain a bullish trend in nifty until it breaks its strong support levels of ~17400.
Technical ranges – Nifty
Last day closing: 17759
S: 17690, 17500, 17409
Technical ranges – BankNifty
Last day closing: 39536
R: 39760,40000, 40500
S: 39200, 38888, 38470
Top stocks to watch out for: Maruti Suzuki, Atul Autos, Tata Investment and ICIL
Oil and Gas Index lagged at start on Thursday; most stocks in red
Sensex opens below 58,800 and Nifty below 17,600. IT stocks lag
Reliance Securities Stock in Focus: Apollo Tyres
STOCK IN FOCUS
Apollo Tyres (CMP Rs.252)
We have BUY on APTY with a Target Price of Rs290, valuing the stock at a P/E multiple of 12.5x.
AMBUJACEM (PREVIOUS CLOSE: 411) BUY
For today’s trade, long position can be initiated in the range of Rs411- 409 for the target of Rs424 with a strict stop loss of Rs402.
TCS (PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3,211) BUY
For today’s trade, long position can be initiated in the range of Rs3,211- 3,190 for the target of R3,270 with a strict stop loss of Rs3,165.
MARICO (PREVIOUS CLOSE: 526) BUY
For today’s trade, long position can be initiated in the range of Rs526- 522 for the target of Rs539 with a strict stop loss of Rs514.
Retail inflation for industrial workers eases to 5.78% in July
Retail inflation for industrial workers eased to 5.78% in July from 6.16% in June 2022 due to lower prices of certain food items, according to the government data released on Wednesday.
“Year-on-year inflation for the month (July 2022) stood at 5.78% compared to 6.16% for the previous month (June 2022) and 5.26% during the corresponding month (July 2021) a year before,” a labour ministry statement said.
Similarly, it said that food inflation stood at 5.96% against 6.73% of the previous month and 4.91% during the corresponding month a year ago.
The Labour Bureau, an attached office of the Ministry of Labour & Employment, has been compiling Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) every month on the basis of retail prices collected from 317 markets spread over 88 industrially important centres in the country. (PTI)
Sensex preopens on a bleak note; drops steeply. SpiceJet, Dish TV, Zomato, NTPC in focus.
Economy likely to grow at 7-7.4% in FY23, says Finance Secretary
The government is expecting the economy to grow at 7-7.5% in 2022-23, in line with its projections made at the beginning of this financial year.
India registered a growth of 8.7% in 2021-22.
“We remain on course to meet the 7.4%. We expect to achieve. This does not really reflect on what is expected to be annual real GDP growth. So, 7-7.5 per cent in that range. 7.4% is what the IMF has predicted,” Finance Secretary T V Somanathan said on Wednesday. (PTI)
He was briefing reporters after the release of the GDP numbers, which showed the economy grew by 13.5% in the April-June quarter, much below the RBI’s projection of 16.2%.
MTNL fails to pay ₹35.15 cr interest to Union Bank of India
Loss-making state-owned telecom firm MTNL has defaulted on an interest payment of ₹35.15 crore to Union Bank of India, which was due to be paid in July, the company said in a regulatory filing.
The company is reeling under a total debt of ₹27,330 crore.
“MTNL has defaulted in the payment of Interest to Union Bank of India,” the filing said.
The company shared a chart that shows it has defaulted ₹35.15 crore interest payment on July 31, 2022.
MTNL has a total outstanding loan of 5,849.71 crore to be paid to Union Bank of India (UBI). (PTI)
3M plans to eliminate jobs in broader cost-cutting push
3M Co. plans to eliminate jobs as part of a broader cost-cutting drive in response to the slowing economy, according to internal communications.
The move comes just days after 3M suffered a setback over a key legal strategy designed to mitigate mounting liabilities and as it faces an array of other challenges, ranging from inflationary woes to sluggish growth.
Michael Vale, head of 3M’s safety and industrial division, disclosed the planned cuts in a message to employees of the unit. “The business can’t avoid this tough necessity,” he said in the communication, which was reviewed by Bloomberg News. (Bloomberg)
Coal production to increase to 1.23 bn tonne by FY 2024-25: Centre
In a bid to ensure energy security for the country, the Centre on Wednesday said that it is in the process of increasing coal production to 1.23 Billion Tonne (BT) by FY 2024-25. To achieve this ambitious goal, Coal India Ltd (CIL) has adopted an integrated planning approach by strengthening evacuation infrastructure for one billion tonne production and seamless transportation of dry fuel. (Full Report)
Stocks to Watch: SpiceJet, Dish TV, Zomato, GMR Infra, Zee, Vodafone Idea, Tata Steel, Indiabulls Housing Finance, NTPC, and NDTV
AJR Infra & Tolling and OCR Iron & Steel stocks will be in focus as they declare their June quarterly report today. (Full Story)
Tokyo stocks opened lower Thursday extending US losses
Tokyo stocks opened lower Thursday extending US losses, with fears growing among investors that there will be no respite from Federal Reserve rate hikes aimed at tamping down inflation.
The benchmark Nikkei 225 index was down 1.04%, or 291.67 points, at 27,799.86 in early trade, while the broader Topix index slipped 0.80%, or 15.76 points, to 1,947.40.
Concern about further widening of US and Japanese rate policy saw the yen depreciate again against the greenback, hitting a fresh 24-year low. (AFP)
DreamFolks Services IPO allotment date: Latest GMP, how to check status online
Share allotment of the public issue worth ₹562.10 crore can be announced soon as tentative DreamFolks IPO allotment date is 1st September 2022. So, share allotment of the public offer can be announced any time today. So, those who have applied for the public offer are advised to check DreamFolks IPO allotment status online by logging in at the BSE website — bseindia.com or at the website of the official registrar of the IPO. The official registrar of DreamFolks IPO is Link Intime India Private Ltd and its official website is linkintime.co.in. (Full Story)
Zomato to focus on food delivery, Hyperpure and quick commerce
Online food delivery platform Zomato has decided to narrow its focus on three key areas of food ordering and delivery; supplies to restaurants through ‘Hyperpure’ and quick commerce, company Chairman Kaushik Dutta said on Tuesday.
In his address to shareholders at the company’s annual general meeting, Dutta said the move was part of strategy to focus “only on areas that have the potential to become meaningfully large businesses ten years from now”.
In FY22, he said Zomato was able to achieve strong top line growth while keeping its “adjusted EBITDA burn under control”, despite multiple challenges such as disruptions due to Covid-19 pandemic, macro-economic uncertainty, rising inflation, fuel prices, among others. (PTI)
Goel agrees to exit Dish TV board in a win for Yes Bank
Yes Bank Ltd’s year-long campaign to oust chairman Jawahar Goel from the board of Dish TV India Ltd paid off after the Subhash Chandra family member agreed to step down as a director at the company’s annual general meeting on 26 September.
This decision by Goel, the younger brother of Essel Group founder Subhash Chandra, made at least one proxy advisory firm argue that the end game has begun in the protracted battle.
On Wednesday, Dish TV told the exchanges that Goel, a non-retiring director, will not seek re-appointment as a director at the AGM later this month. In a separate notice, the satellite TV provider also said that the board had agreed to induct Sunil Kumar Gupta, Uday Kumar Varma and Haripriya Padmanabhan as directors after the information and broadcasting ministry approves their candidature. (Full Report)
SpiceJet net loss widens to ₹789 crore in June quarter, CFO Sanjeev Taneja resigns
Low-cost carrier SpiceJet on Wednesday said the company’s Chief Financial Officer Sanjeev Taneja had resigned amid widening losses and an increase in in-flight incidents. The airline recorded a net loss of ₹789 crore for the first quarter ending 30 June, as compared with a loss of ₹729 crore in the year-ago period, as the carrier’s business was severely impacted by record high fuel prices and a depreciating Rupee. (Full Report)
India’s unemployment rate plunges to 7.6% in April-June 2022: NSO survey
The unemployment rate in India for people aged 15 years and above in urban areas declined to 7.6 per cent during April-June 2022 from 12.6 per cent a year ago, the National Statistical Office (NSO) said on 31 August.
In April-June 2021, the joblessness was high in the country mainly due to the staggering impact of Covid-related restrictions. (Full Report)
Zilingo tried to sell low-quality Chinese KN95 masks to India
Singapore-based fashion e-commerce startup Zilingo allegedly tried to dispatch “millions” of substandard Chinese KN95 masks during the covid pandemic in 2020 to India by faking third-party inspection certificates, two senior officials of the health ministry said on Tuesday.
The discrepancies were spotted by the health ministry’s central procurement agency, HLL Lifecare. (Full Story)
Centre raises windfall tax on domestic crude, cess on ATF exports
The union government has increased the windfall tax on the sale of locally produced crude oil to ₹13,300 per tonne. The special additional excise duty on the export of diesel has been increased from ₹6 to ₹12 per litre. (Full Report)
The Indian economy expanded 13.5% in the June quarter, the fastest in a year
The Indian economy expanded 13.5% in the June quarter, the fastest in a year, led by a revival of consumption, recovery of the services sector, and the low base of last year, official data showed.
However, elevated global energy and commodity prices led by the supply chain disruption caused by the Russia-Ukraine war weighed on manufacturing activity during the quarter.
Economists believe the rising interest rates led by monetary policy tightening and normalizing base may pose a challenge for additional investments in the manufacturing sector, and high inflation will keep corporate margins under pressure. This may hurt the economic growth outlook. (Full Report)
Wall Street ends August with a whimper on Fed worry
U.S. stocks ended the month with their fourth straight daily decline on Wednesday, cementing the weakest August performance in seven years as worries about aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve persisted.
Adding to the pressure were declines in the technology sector, and more specifically chipmakers, after soft forecasts from Seagate and HP Inc.
The three main indexes suffered their biggest monthly percentage declines in August since 2015. After hitting a four-month high in mid-August, the S&P 500 has stumbled in recent weeks, dropping more than 8% through Wednesday’s close and falling through several closely watched technical support levels. (Reuters)
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